The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market updates on July 16
Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 15:00 MT time
If the governor’s comments regarding monetary policy are hawkish, the British pound will move up.
Speech by the FOMC member Bowman – 15:15 MT time
If the policymaker softens his comments concerning the rate cut, the USD will go up.
US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time
The key release for the USD today. Both headline and core indicators are expected to advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will bring positive momentum for the USD.
Speech by the Fed Chair Powell – 20:00 MT time
Speech by the FOMC member Evans – 22:30 MT time
Pay attention to the hints on the rate cut by the Fed speakers.
- The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the release of its CPI during the Asian trading session. The indicator came out in line with the forecasts as it advanced by 0.6%. On H4, NZD/USD retested the resistance at 0.6734 but failed to break it. If the USD is supported today, the pair will move lower to the support at 0.6716. The next key support levels lie at 0.67 and 0.6670. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance at 0.6734. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 0.6748 level. RSI is about to leave the overbought zone and Stochastic indicator formed a crossover. These facts may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.
- The British pound weakened significantly ahead of the employment data and the speech by the BOE governor. It has tested the ground below the 1.2479 level on H4. The next support in the focus of bears will lie at 1.2439. If the cable reverses, the pair will retest the 1.2520 level. If this resistance is broken, bulls will target the 1.2538 level. Stochastic indicator formed a crossover within the oversold zone.
- EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 1.1284 and the 1.1236 levels since July 11. Today it has already tested the levels below the 50-period SMA at 1.1249. If the USD is supported today, bears will break the 1.1236 level and target the next support at 1.1220. Key resistance levels for the euro are 1.1263, 1.1274 and 1.1284.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.