During the daily press briefing of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, it was announced that Mexico will receive 1.4 million doses of the vaccine by the end of January. Is that optimistic enough for the peso?
Market updates on July 2
During the early trading hours, the Australian central bank cut its interest rate to 1% with the dovish outlook. As the decision was already priced in, the Australian dollar tested the ground below 50-period SMA ahead of the meeting but bounced back on the H4 chart. At the moment it is moving towards the resistance at 0.6994. The next resistance is placed at 0.7007. After the breakout of this level, keep an eye on the resistance at 0.7022. From the downside, bears need to pull the pair towards the 0.6963-0.6956 zone. After the breakout, the fall towards the support at 0.6947 is possible.
· Yesterday, the US threatened to raise tariffs on $4 billion of additional EU goods due to the dispute over aircraft subsidies. Combined with the comments on the further easing by the ECB policymakers, the news pulled the euro below the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears need to break the support at 1.1280 to pull EUR/USD lower. The next support levels will be placed at 1.1269 and 1.1257. On the other hand, if bulls try to push the pair up, they will, at first, reach the resistance at 1.1306 (100-period SMA). After that, they face resistance at 1.3190. If this level is broken, the next one will lie at 1.1348 (50-period SMA). RSI oscillator is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity. Pay attention to the speech by the FOMC member Williams, which may affect the EUR/USD pair.
· The uncertainties for the British pound remain, as one of the leading candidates on the post of the UK Prime Minister plans to leave the EU without a deal on October 31. The cable has been trying to stick below the 1.2623 on H4. The next support levels will be placed at 1.2612 and 1.2603. From the upside, buyers will pay attention to the 1.2648 level. After the breakout, the pair will rise as far as the 1.2670 level (100-period SMA) is reached.
· The greenback has risen significantly against the Chinese yuan. The USD/CNH has been testing the resistance at 6.8855 on the H4. The next significant level is placed at 6.8917. The PBOC set USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.8513, that is why we may anticipate the fall of the pair. Keep an eye on the support levels at 6.8636, 6.8578 and 6.8486.
· Gold has been trading in a narrow range between $1,383 and $1,393 levels on H4. If the $1,393 level is broken, the next resistance lies at $1,404. After the breakout, the bullish strength may be limited by the resistance at $1,411. Bears need to pay attention to the $1,383 and $1,364 levels.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.