Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
Market updates on July 4
What currency pairs to watch today?
- After the test of the 61.8% Fibo near the 1.1270 level on H4, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging between this level and resistance at 1.1294 (50% Fibo level). The bullish strength will be confirmed if the pair manages to break the current resistance and stick above the 100-period SMA. In that case, the rise may be limited by the next resistance at 1.1343 (50-period SMA). From the downside, the break of the 1.1270 level will increase the risks of the further fall towards the 1.1252 level (200-period SMA). This is also the border of the ascending trading channel.
- Yesterday, GBP/USD slid towards the 1.2556 level. On H4, the pair is currently consolidating between 1.2556 and 1.2589-1.2597 levels. The weakness of the GBP will put additional pressure to the pair. As a result, if the 1.2556 level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.2510. On the other hand, the inability of bears to break the 1.2556 level will help bulls to retest the upper border of the consolidation range between 1.2589 and 1.2597. If these levels are broken, the pair will rise to the next resistance at 1.2632.
- AUD/USD was unable to stick near the strong resistance at 0.7047 and fell below the 0.7022 level at the beginning of the day. Bulls need to break this level to restore the upward moving channel. However, MACD formed a bearish divergence with the price that is why we may expect further fall. From the downside, the 0.7011 and 0.7 levels are important for bears.
- The kiwi has fallen below the 0.6693 level towards the 0.6674 level, which lies close to the 23.6% Fibo and 50-period SMA. The strength of bears will be confirmed if the pair manages to fall below this level and target the next support at 0.6656. The next key level for sellers will lie at 0.6629. If buyers take back control over the market, the kiwi will retest the resistance at 0.6693. The break of this level make it possible to retest the 0.6717 level.
Last week, there were sharp swings in USDJPY, a decline in oil prices, and a surge in Tesla stock. What's next?
Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
Every week we expect many interesting events that can shake the market.