The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Market updates on November 15
US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)
During the Asian trading session, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow announced the positive progress in phase one trade deal with China. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the market.
- USD/JPY took advantage of the news and has risen higher. The pair has tested the 108.6 level on H4. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. After that, reaching the 108.78 level (100-period SMA) will be possible. From the downside, bears will be looking for a breakout of the 108.51 level. If it happens, the chance of falling towards the 108.42 level will increase. The next support will lie at 108.28.
- The price of gold has bounced from the 50-period SMA on H4 and moved lower. Since the beginning of the trading session, it has slid towards the support at $1,461. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at $1,457.6. From the upside, if gold’s price rises above the $1,466, the next key level will lie at $1,471 (50-period SMA).
- EUR/USD is awaiting the release of indicators of US headline and core retail sales. According to the forecasts, the former indicator will advance by 0.1%, while the latter is expected to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the euro will fall below the 1.1015 level on H4 and will likely test the support at 1.1003. On the other hand, if the figures disappoint, the breakout of the current resistance at 1.1025 will occur and may drive EUR/USD up to the 1.1034 level.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.