The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market Updates on November 4
Key events ahead
Swiss Consumer Confidence – 08:45 MT time (06:45 UTC)
German Manufacturing PMI Index – 10:55 MT time (08:55 UTC)
The EURUSD pair has started the week with no significant shifts. Despite the release of higher than expected non-farm payroll figures (+128K in October against 89K expected) on November 1, the USD didn't gain strength. On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the price is aiming at the resistance of 1.1177, set by the October high. The next resistance may be located at 1.1217. For the support levels, we may place 1.1145, 1.1101 and 1.1076 in case the market decides to favor the bears.
Although the NFP release was better than expected, the US dollar depreciated. Up to now, the USD is on a moderate rise. On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, we may place the support levels at 107.97 and 108.14, formed by the lows of Thursday-Friday last week. The bulls will have the resistance levels of 108.92, 108.99 and 109.25 on their way.
On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, we may see interesting patterns formed by gold. On October 25, gold reached the 1514.45 peak, which is now the closest resistance level. On the same day, the RSI index crossed the overbought level upside down. The gold has been dropping to the support range at 1484.14 simultaneously with the RSI index. After the latter has crossed the oversold level of 30% from below on October 29, gold started rising again and reached back up the resistance level of 1514.45, where it has been consolidating since last Friday. As we see that the RSI index crossed the overbought level of 70% from above again, there is a high probability that XAU/USD price will be falling once again. The support levels may be located at 1503.50, 1491.55, 1488.83, 1484.14 and 1480.35. While the bulls may have 1514.47 as the resistance level.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.