The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Market updates on September 4
Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)
BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)
Traders are curious about the mood of the Bank of Canada. Although the central bank is supposed to keep the rate on hold, the statement will be the midpoint of the meeting. The slowing global economy and trade tensions keep weighing on countries. If the BOC sounds hawkish, the loonie will rise. In the case of the dovish tone, the currency will suffer.
On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.
GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.
Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.
As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.
Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.
If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
The crypto market keeps recovering. Bitcoin has broken above $57,000. The way up to $60,000 is open now!
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).