The US dollar has surged to levels unseen since April after the Fed's decision back on Wednesday. Gold has reversed up from the local dips. Still, this week was the worst for gold in more than a year.
Markets ahead of Christmas
- The UK and the EU negotiators are working to finalize the historic Brexit trade deal. An announcement is expected today, which will drive the pound up. Actually, the GBP has already started rallying upwards. Check out GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.
- The USD was pressed down by the Brexit hopes and by the US stimulus package impasse. After the US Congress passed a coronavirus-relief bill, US President Donald Trump refused to sign it. He insists that the $600 payment should be $2 000. House Democrats supported that idea.
- Pfizer and BioNTech will double the deliveries of their Covid-19 vaccine to the US. Scientists seem to agree that the vaccines will be efficient against the new coronavirus strain as well, improving the market sentiment.
- UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed stricter restrictions in the country because of the new virus strain, which is quickly spreading.
EUR/USD is trading in an ascending channel. If it jumps above the high of December 22 at 1.2240, the way up towards the high of December 17 at 1.2270 will be clear. On the flip side, if the pair drops below the lower trendline of 1.2175, it may fall to the next support of 1.2150.
The British pound is edging higher on hopes for a soon Brexit agreement. The way up to the high of December 17 of 1.3610 is clear now. If it manages to break it, the next barrier will be at 1.3700. In the opposite scenario, the move below the support zone of 1.3460-1.3435 will drive the pair to the 200-period moving average of 1.3350.
XAU/USD is trading in a descending channel in the long term, but in an ascending one in the short-term. The price is supported by the 50-period moving average from the downside. The doors are open towards the high of December 17 at $1 890. The breakout of this level will drive gold to $1 900. Support levels are at the recent lows of $1 860 and $1 850.
EUR/GBP has approached the key support at the 200-period moving average of 0.9000. It’s unlikely to cross it by the first attempt as the pair has failed to break it several times this month. Therefore, the pullback to the upside is expected. If EUR/GBP finally crosses this level, the way down to the low of December 1 at 0.895 will be clear. Once the Brexit agreement is announced, the GBP should skyrocket and EUR/GBP should drop.
Great Britain will release retail sales for May on June 18, at 09:00 MT time. One cannot underestimate the importance of this indicator.
The Fed made a hawkish surprise! The bank would start a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. Besides, it is likely to make two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 (sooner than expected)!
Wednesday will please traders as many economic indicators will be out! The USA, UK, and Euro Area will release PMI reports on June 23 from 10:15 to 16:45 MT.
The Bank of England will release its statement and announce its monetary policy decision at 14:00 MT.
Last week the USD soared versus other major currencies, while gold headed for the biggest weekly loss in 15 months. Let’s see what new moves await us this week!