Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Markets ahead of Christmas
Fundamentals
- The UK and the EU negotiators are working to finalize the historic Brexit trade deal. An announcement is expected today, which will drive the pound up. Actually, the GBP has already started rallying upwards. Check out GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.
- The USD was pressed down by the Brexit hopes and by the US stimulus package impasse. After the US Congress passed a coronavirus-relief bill, US President Donald Trump refused to sign it. He insists that the $600 payment should be $2 000. House Democrats supported that idea.
- Pfizer and BioNTech will double the deliveries of their Covid-19 vaccine to the US. Scientists seem to agree that the vaccines will be efficient against the new coronavirus strain as well, improving the market sentiment.
- UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed stricter restrictions in the country because of the new virus strain, which is quickly spreading.
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Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is trading in an ascending channel. If it jumps above the high of December 22 at 1.2240, the way up towards the high of December 17 at 1.2270 will be clear. On the flip side, if the pair drops below the lower trendline of 1.2175, it may fall to the next support of 1.2150.
GBP/USD
The British pound is edging higher on hopes for a soon Brexit agreement. The way up to the high of December 17 of 1.3610 is clear now. If it manages to break it, the next barrier will be at 1.3700. In the opposite scenario, the move below the support zone of 1.3460-1.3435 will drive the pair to the 200-period moving average of 1.3350.
Gold
XAU/USD is trading in a descending channel in the long term, but in an ascending one in the short-term. The price is supported by the 50-period moving average from the downside. The doors are open towards the high of December 17 at $1 890. The breakout of this level will drive gold to $1 900. Support levels are at the recent lows of $1 860 and $1 850.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP has approached the key support at the 200-period moving average of 0.9000. It’s unlikely to cross it by the first attempt as the pair has failed to break it several times this month. Therefore, the pullback to the upside is expected. If EUR/GBP finally crosses this level, the way down to the low of December 1 at 0.895 will be clear. Once the Brexit agreement is announced, the GBP should skyrocket and EUR/GBP should drop.
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Latest news
ISM PMI Indicates Contraction
The US Institute for Supply Management will release ISM manufacturing PMI on July 1, 17:00 GMT+3.
US PCE May Soar Soon
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
Bank of England Tries to Save the Pound
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
