The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Markets await Biden to unveil "trillions dollars"
Latest market news
- Donald Trump becomes the first president in history to be impeached twice.
- Besides, Trump has strengthened a ban on US investments in Chinese companies. Among blacklisted companies are China’s top chipmaker SMIC and oil giant CNOOC. The administration turned down the idea to blacklist giants Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent.
- Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD. However, analysts expect the US stimulus will improve risk sentiment and press the USD down.
- US inflation numbers came out exactly as analysts expected.
- China’s exports rose more than forecast in December, signaling sustained global demand.
- The UK recorded the highest level of daily deaths since the Covid-19 pandemic started.
- Investors are focused on the extra US stimulus package, upcoming global recovery, and growth.
- Fed’s head Jerome Powell will hold a meeting at 19:30 MT time today, which should have a huge impact on the market.
EUR/USD may fall further while it’s below 1.2250, said UOB group. If the pair breaks below the recent lows of 1.2140, the way down to the next support of 1.2110 will be clear. Resistance levels are at the 200-period moving average of 1.2170 and the psychological mark of 1.2200.
On the gold chart, we can notice a bearish zero line crossover. The MACD indicator gets below 0 to turn negative. Since the overall trend is also downward, further falling is expected. If the price manages to break below the 200-day moving average of $1 835, the way down to the key psychological mark of $1 800 will be clear. Resistance levels are $1 870 and $1 900.
EUR/GBP is moving down. If it crosses the key psychological mark of 0.8900, the way down to yesterday’s low of 0.8885 will be clear. On the flip side, if it jumps above the 50-hour moving average at 0.8920, the doors towards the next resistance of 0.8935 will be open.
WTI oil pulled back after reaching the fresh high in almost a year. However, the support level of $52.70 stopped oil from further falling. If it manages to drop below this level, it may dip to the low of January 11 at $51.60. Resistance levels are $54.00 and $55.00.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.