Markets await ECB's statement

Markets await ECB's statement

The market sentiment has started improving since yesterday. Riskier assets and stocks surged higher, while the US dollar is headed to the downside. The main event of the day is the ECB’s monetary policy statement. The central bank is expected to leave its monetary policy and rates unchanged. However, there are two absolutely opposite views on the tone of the upcoming meeting. Most analysts believe the bank is going to show more optimism and confidence in the economic recovery, which will push the EUR upwards. While there are some other analysts, who argue that the ECB remains unsatisfied with the appreciated euro, which in turn weighs on exports. Therefore, they believe the bank may take action to push the euro down. So, the further euro’s movement depends on what the ECB will opt for optimism or pessimism.

Let’s look at the EUR/USD chart. It keeps rallying upward. The move above the high of September 4 at 1.1860 will drive the pair further to the key psychological mark of 1.1900. In the opposite scenario, if EUR/USD falls below the low of September 9 at 1.1760, the doors towards 1.1700 will be open. Follow the ECB statement at 14:45 MT time as it will define the further EUR movement! Later on, at 15:30 MT time, the ECB will hold a press conference, where the bank will answer unscripted questions, which will add some additional volatility to the market. Moreover, at the same time US producer price index and unemployment claims will be out.

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Speaking about stocks, they have risen too since yesterday. The S&P 500 has just broken through the key psychological mark of 3 400. If it jumps above Tuesday’s high of 3 435, the way to the high of September 4 at 3 475 will be clear.


Let’s move on to gold. The yellow metal has just bounced off the resistance of $1 950. If it manages to cross it, it may surge to the high of September 2 at $1 965. Support levels are at recent lows at $1 925 and $1 910.


Finally, let’s talk about the British pound. It has dramatically plummeted since the beginning of September because of the fears over the no-Brexit deal. However, today the overall risk-on sentiment underpinned even the GBP. Besides, this morning there was the UK upbeat report on the housing market also added tailwinds. If GBP/USD jumps above the recent high of 1.3050, it will clear the way towards the next resistance of 1.3120 at the 200-period moving average.


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USD Holds the Line
USD Holds the Line

The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

US Dollar Prepares for the Pump
US Dollar Prepares for the Pump

On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies. 

Uptrend in Gold Starts Now
Uptrend in Gold Starts Now

Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!

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Market Crash Incoming?
Market Crash Incoming?

This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.

What Currency Will Overperform?
What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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