Riskier assets and gold ended last week with huge gains due to the weak US dollar’s performance. Let’s discuss what will drive the markets today.
May’s American trade deficit sinks to 1-1/2 year minimum
In May, American trade deficit headed south to a 1-1/2-year minimum because exports tacked on to a record maximum, underpinned by a leap in shipments of soybeans as well as commercial aircraft.
On Friday, the Commerce Department told the trade gap was caught shrinking 6.6% hitting $43.1 billion. It happens to be the least impressive outcome since October 2016. April’s data turned out to be moderately updated to demonstrate the trade deficit diving to $46.1 billion, in contrast with the previously posted reading of $46.2 billion.
Market analysts, who were interviewed by Reuters had foreseen the trade deficit slumping to $43.7 billion in May. Additionally, when updated for inflation, the trade gap slipped to $75.3 billion. It’s the world reading since March 2017, from April’s outcome of $77.5 billion. In April and May, the real trade deficit didn’t manage to surpass $82.5 billion in the first quarter.
The sag in the real trade deficit in May and in April drops a hint that trade could actually contribute to GDP in the second quarter having faced a neutral impact in the January-March period. As for estimates for second-quarter GDP, they’re above a 4% annualized rate. That’s double the 2% surge tempo logged in this year’s first three months.
However, clashes between the USA as well as its crucial trading partners, such as Mexico, China, the EU and Canada are worsening the outlook for the rest of 2018.
Market experts have warned that the tit-for-tat duties could potentially ruin the supply chain, heavily affect business investment and lift prices for customers, thus wiping out the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax reduction package, which came true in January.
Exports of goods as well as services jumped by up to 1.9% in May, hitting $215.3 billion.
The US president is back to White House after three days spent in the hospital. Riskier assets rose, while safe havens dipped.
The market sentiment has switched to risk-on, driving upwards stocks and riskier currencies and weighing on the US dollar.
Canada’s retail sales will be out on October 21 at 15:30 MT time. Get ready with us for this event!
The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.