Forex, oil, gold, and stocks on April 4-8
Last week, there were sharp swings in USDJPY, a decline in oil prices, and a surge in Tesla stock. What's next?
May 2020 forex season trading
April seasonal patterns weren’t supposed to work, but somehow they did. Even a strong fundamental issue such as the global recession amid the coronavirus couldn’t overwhelm it. That’s why May seasonal patterns may work as well.
However, it’s better to combine seasonal trading with technical and fundamental analysis. All together they will help you to make a successful trade.
Risk-off currency pairs
There is a good proverb: “Sell in May and go away”. It seems that it’s true for all currencies this month except safe-haven ones such as USD, CHF and JPY that will remain strong. According to Bloomberg, the US dollar index increased in 8 of the past 9 months of May. On average it rose by 1.53% in May over the past decade. Also, CHF should perform greatly in May as it's the strongest month over the past decade for the franc against the US dollar. However, take into account that CHF has been fallen for last 3 years.
Risk-on currency pairs
AUD has recently showed the steady rise, but according to seasonal patterns it’s time to stop it as May is going to be a weak month for the aussie. The average May decline over the past ten years was 2.33%.
Euro
May will be the worst time for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF. EUR/USD was decreasing in 8 of the past 9 years. The average May decline was 1.76% over the past decade.
Pound
This month will be disappointing for GBP/USD as the US dollar will be more favorable for investors amid the economic uncertainty. However, EUR should perform worse than GBP, that’s why EUR/GBP can drop.
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Latest news
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.
What Can Happen to the CAD after the Retail Data?
Canada will publish Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on June 21 at 15:30 GMT+3.
