The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements. Be ready to take action!
May 2020 forex season trading
April seasonal patterns weren’t supposed to work, but somehow they did. Even a strong fundamental issue such as the global recession amid the coronavirus couldn’t overwhelm it. That’s why May seasonal patterns may work as well.
However, it’s better to combine seasonal trading with technical and fundamental analysis. All together they will help you to make a successful trade.
Risk-off currency pairs
There is a good proverb: “Sell in May and go away”. It seems that it’s true for all currencies this month except safe-haven ones such as USD, CHF and JPY that will remain strong. According to Bloomberg, the US dollar index increased in 8 of the past 9 months of May. On average it rose by 1.53% in May over the past decade. Also, CHF should perform greatly in May as it's the strongest month over the past decade for the franc against the US dollar. However, take into account that CHF has been fallen for last 3 years.
Risk-on currency pairs
AUD has recently showed the steady rise, but according to seasonal patterns it’s time to stop it as May is going to be a weak month for the aussie. The average May decline over the past ten years was 2.33%.
May will be the worst time for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF. EUR/USD was decreasing in 8 of the past 9 years. The average May decline was 1.76% over the past decade.
This month will be disappointing for GBP/USD as the US dollar will be more favorable for investors amid the economic uncertainty. However, EUR should perform worse than GBP, that’s why EUR/GBP can drop.
We prepared an outlook of major events of this week. Check it and be ready!
Here you'll find what awaits the market this week, from the CPI release to a possible gold plunge.
The situation on the labor market still looks optimistic. Today we expect the Unemployment rate data. 3.5% is expected.
The first day of June should’ve brought us the US default. Unsurprisingly, the US House passes the debt ceiling bill at the latest possible moment.
About 24% of global central banks intend to increase gold reserves in 2023. Rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and worries about interest rates are reasons to increase gold reserves.