Market outlook on May 14

The market continues to be in a risk-off mode. Time to gain on falling!

AUD dropped on poor unemployment data

Almost 600,000 jobs were lost in April in Australia. Numbers were worse than analysts anticipated. As a result, AUD sank after its strong rally. Let’s look at the daily AUD/USD chart. The price has hit the 100-day moving average already twice. There is a still strong upward trend. However, no way AUD can break out this level soon in such a risk-averse market. If it manages to do it though, it will open doors towards 0.6635. Support are at 0.6375 and 0.626.

Trump disagrees with Powell on negative rates

The US president wants rates to go below zero, but Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, doesn’t even consider this tool. Yesterday Powell claimed that outlook is dire and there are downside risks ahead. He thinks extra government spending will prevent the country from the long-term recession. The Fed also began buying exchange-traded funds to supply more money to the market and discussed additional aids. USD surged as well as JPY.

Stocks are overvalued

Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire investor, said that he didn’t remember the time when the risk of holding stocks so outweighed the potential profit. According to him, the market is flooded with liquidity and soon it will contract. Donald Trump, as always, impressed everybody with his straightforwardness.

However, Wall Street analysts don’t think the same. The S&P 500 has dipped this week, and economists expect the further downturn. Most analysts believe the market will be bearish this year.

Oil trades higher

The WTI oil price increased to $25 a barrel. Overall, it’s going up in May. It was caused by the drop in U.S. crude inventories, marking the first decline since January. However, analysts warn that oil prices could go negative again ahead of June contacts expiration.

trading the news aud - australian dollar usd wti - west texas intermediate oil federal reserve stocks market