The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
News to trade on December 19
- The main focus for the market for today will be on the Federal open market committee statement and on the press conference at 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 4th rate hike. If the Fed is hawkish, EUR/USD will fall to the support at 1.1338.
However, some of the analysts afraid of the possible dovish tone by the Fed amid the global economic slowdown. If the Fed Chair Powell delivers dovish comments, EUR/USD will stick above the resistance at 1.1408.
- According to the news, the British Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to implement the plans for a no-deal Brexit. Further warnings to Great Britain will be announced in the coming weeks. At the moment, GBP/USD has continued its modest gains towards the resistance at 1.27. Any positive updates on the Brexit solution will support the British pound and push it further up to the 1.27 level. Otherwise, if the news on Brexit disappoints investors and traders, the British currency will fall towards the support at 1.2605.
- New Zealand anticipates the release of GDP for the third quarter. Experts see the economy of New Zealand to grow by 0.6%. If the actual data is higher, the kiwi will rise towards the resistance at 0.6876. The lower-than-expected data will pull the kiwi down to the support at 0.6826.
- The oil prices keep moving down driven by Russian and US high supply forecasts. Russian oil production hit a record 11.42 million barrels this month, while the level of oil production in 7 US shale basins is expected to climb to more than 8 million barrels by the end of 2018. As a result, the price for WTI updated its August 2017 lows and stick below the $47 level yesterday. More concerns on the oversupply will pull the crude’s price towards the support at $45.76. If more hints on the production cut by OPEC+, scheduled for the next month come out, the price for WTI will stick above the resistance at $47.02. The next resistance is placed at $48.68.
- As for Brent, its price tested the support at $55.96. If it’s broken, bears will focus on the next support at $55.12. If the price for Brent gets a positive momentum, it will rise towards the resistance at $57.65.
- The gold has been going up due to the weak US dollar. If the USD is not supported by the Fed statement, the price for the yellow metal will rise towards the resistance at $1,258. In case of the strong USD, the price for gold will stick below the support at $1,248.
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The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.