News on December 6

The Chief Financial Officer of Huawei Technologies Co was arrested in Canada over potential violations of US sanctions on Iran, which fueled the trade tensions between the US and China and increased the risk-off sentiment across the equity markets.
During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell below the 100-day MA, testing the support at 0.7226. The reason for it lies in the dovish outlook for 2019 by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Yesterday’s weak GDP release had a significant impact on the RBA message. If the capital’s outflow from the risky assets continues, the pair will stick below the 0.7285 level and fall towards the next support at 0.7182 (50-day MA). Otherwise, it will rise above the 0.7226 level.

The Bank of Canada statement did not contain any supportive information for the Canadian dollar yesterday. Today, USD/CAD has already crossed the resistance at 1.3368 and has risen towards the next resistance at 1.3450.

The pair is waiting for two releases today: the Canadian trade balance at 15:30 MT time and the American ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 17:00 MT time. According to forecast, we will see the deficit of 7 million Canadian dollars in the trade balance of Canada. If actual figures outperform the forecast, the CAD will be supported. If the trade balance for Canada is greater than expected, the pair will fall towards the 1.3368 level. If it’s broken, the pair will target the next support at 1.3277. Otherwise, if the USD is strong, the pair will be able to stick above the 1.3450 level.

EUR/USD is trading sideways with strong support at 1.1329. If the USD is supported by higher-than-expected Non-Manufacturing PMI, the pair will fall towards the next support at 1.1256. Otherwise, it will sick above 1.1329. The next resistance is placed at 1.1391.

The highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for today in Vienna. According to the recent comments by the OPEC+ members, the production cut will be around 1 million barrels per day. The market did not like this low level as both WTI and Brent has dropped on this news. However, the final decision has not been reached. If they agree on the greater oil output cut, the levels of crude’s price will gain. At the moment of writing, the price for WTI has crossed the $52.2 level and has tested the next support at $50.81. In case of the positive outcome, the price for WTI will go up and can stick above $52.20. The next resistance is placed at $53.92. If the sides do not reach an agreement, WTI’s price will stick below the support at $50.81. The next support is at $49.09. Tomorrow, OPEC members will meet with Russia to finalize the oil output cuts.

Brent follows the similar scenario. If the OPEC+ members decide on the cut of oil production, the crude’s price can stick above the resistance at $61.03. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at $59.41. The next support is placed at $57.4.

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usd

eur

aud - australian dollar

cad - canadian dollar

oil

brent

wti - west texas intermediate

Author: FBS Analyst Team

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