The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
News to trade on November 1
- The main event for today is the Bank of England monetary policy summary and the press conference held by Mark Carney afterward. While there is no expectation of a rate hike, the GBP can be supported by the hawkish comments. Yesterday the UK Brexit minister Raab was confident about reaching the Brexit deal on the 21 of November. It lifted GBP/USD towards the resistance at 1.2895. Hawkish statements by the Bank of England can make the pair to stick above2895. Negative news can push the cable down to the support at 1.2704.
- The Chinese government announced further plans for stimulating the economy as the manufacturing data continues to decline, following the trade tensions between the US and China. It lifted the risk-on sentiment among the investors and made the risk currencies, such as the aussie and the kiwi to rise. AUD/USD crossed the resistance at 0.7134 towards the next resistance at 0.7164 (50-day MA). If the USD is strong or the uncertainties across the equity market increase, the pair will drop below the support at 0.7077. As for NZD/USD, the pair followed the same scenario. Up to now, it is testing the resistance at 0.6594. Strong USD will make NZD/USD to drop below 0.6529.
- The Chinese yuan, in its turn, rose from its weakest level. USD/CNH fell below the support at 6.9529. The next support is at 6.9287. If the USD is strong, the pair will go up to the resistance at 6.9522.
- The US dollar index is declining following the strong gains across the equity markets. The next support for the price lies at 95.15. The upcoming release of manufacturing PMI for the US at 17:00 can change the situation. Despite the index is expected to drop to 59 from 59.8 points, a higher-than-expected data can support the USD. In that case, the resistance for the price lies at 96.76.
- It seems like the risk-on market sentiment does not affect the direction of the price for the Gold. The price surged above the resistance at $1,221. However, higher-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI can support the USD and thus push the commodity downwards the support at $1,208.
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On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.