News on November 20

The British pound started to recover yesterday after Theresa May’s comments on Brexit during the CBI conference. In addition, the rumors on submitting the no-confidence vote in her leadership started to fade after ministers failed to reach the target of 48 letters. Today, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testified the inflation report to the parliament. According to his words, BOE is not going to provide additional analysis of a no-deal Brexit scenario and look at a scenario related to the withdrawal agreement. In addition, BOE policymaker Michael Saunders commented on slowing economic conditions due to Brexit and announced the gradual tightening of the policy. The mixed comments resulted in GBP/USD trading sideways during the day. If there is more positive news on Brexit, the British pound can stick above the resistance at 1.2874. Dovish comments and negative news will move the pair down to the support at 1.2677.

OPEC-Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will have a meeting later today. Earlier, The International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Faith Birol said the oil prices are entering the time of uncertainties. More comments from OPEC members can shake the oil market.

Crude is trading sideways while the comments from leaders on oil supply keep affecting the market. If the comments during the OPEC meetings are related to the reduction of oil production, Brent can rise towards the resistance at 67.86. Otherwise, it will fall downwards to the support at 63.85.

As for WTI, the uncertainties on the market yesterday formed a hanging man candlestick. It demonstrates the strong resistance at 57.48. The cut of the production can help WTI to stick above 57.48. More comments on unsuccessful US sanctions will make WTI drop towards 53.69.

Yesterday, International Monetary fund warned about the risks in the Australian economy. The key topics included the path of lower interest rates by RBA, slowing in the housing market and risks from trade tensions. In addition, the RBA announced the possible rate hike during the next meeting. However, it did not have a major effect on the AUD, as the risk-off sentiment across the technical stocks’ holders drove the aussie below the central pivot at 0.7237. Today, AUD/USD has tested the 50-day MA. If the risk-off sentiment escalates, the support for the AUD/USD lies at 0.7216. Otherwise, it will rise upwards to the resistance at 0.7390. In addition, the trade tensions between the US and China keep being the market mover. That’s why this news may affect the Australian currency.

The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the stronger milk production data. The trade tensions between the US and China will add a downside momentum to NZD/USD. In that case, it will fall towards the support at 0.6820. Otherwise, the first resistance lies at 200-day MA at 0.6882.

The main factors that affecting EUR/USD today are the anticipation of the response to the proposal of the revised Italian budget tomorrow. Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio suggested the further negotiations on the budget solution with EU authorities without getting rid of main measures in the budget. For now, the spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields keeps rising. As a result, the EUR has been falling today. If the spread increases, EUR/USD will drown to the support at 1.1350. However, if the USD weakens, it will have the pair to get back its gains. In that case, the resistance lies at 1.1451.

aud - australian dollar gbp wti - west texas intermediate oil eur brent nzd - new zealand dollar

Ekaterina Gorbatenko

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