The risk sentiment remains under pressure after the comments by China about the countermeasures against the US tariffs. Thus, the AUD/USD and the USD/JPY pairs will be under our attention.
News to trade on November 21
- The US dollar index fell from the resistance at 96.69 ahead of the European session.
The release of core durable goods orders today at 15:30 MT time can impact on the further movement of the USD. Analysts expect it to increase by 0.4%. If the actual data outperforms the forecast, it will lift the greenback higher. In that case, the US Dollar index will stick above the 96.69 resistance. The next resistance for the index lies at 97.13. If the actual digits disappoint the market, the USD index will slide towards the support at 95.88.
- The risk-off sentiment across the Asian equity markets has continued today amid the further declines on Wall Street. Despite that fact, the Antipodeans started bid on Wednesday after the massive falls yesterday. The weak US dollar can help the aussie to stick above the resistance at 0.7250 (100-day MA). However, the negative news on future negotiations between the US and China can have a negative effect on AUD/USD. For instance, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer criticized the trade practices of China, calling them "market-distorting". Further negative news on the trade war ahead of the meeting of the Chinese president Xi and US president Trump in a couple of weeks, as well as the stronger US Dollar, can pull the Australian dollar below the support at 0.7216. The next key level for AUD/USD lies at 50-day MA which acts as a support at 0.7170.
- NZD/USD follows a similar scenario. The bullish US Dollar index and negative news on trade negotiations will move the pair down to the support at 0.6756. In case of the increased risk-on sentiment, the kiwi will stick above the resistance at 0.6820. The next resistance is situated at 200-day MA at 0.6882.
- What about the European session?
At first, we anticipate the European Commission to make a decision on the revised Italian budget at 13:00 MT time. For now, the unchanged deficit targets in the budget may trigger worries, as Italy is in breach of the EU law. According to European sources, the public debt cannot be higher than 60% of GDP. However, Italy keeps being skeptical and says the expansionary measures are needed to support the whole European economy. If the European Commission disapproves the proposal, it will have a negative effect on the EUR. EUR/USD will likely to fall below the support at 1.1350. If the pair extends falls, the next support lies at 1.1280. However, if the budget targets are successfully renegotiated, EUR/USD will rise towards the resistance at 1.1487.
- As for GBP/USD, the British Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to meet with the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at 18:30 MT time ahead of the EU summit on November 25 where the official version of the Withdrawal Agreement to be presented. Yesterday GBP/USD fell amid the new uncertaintes. It demanded the Madrid's veto over Gibraltar's future status. Otherwise, it will vote against a deal. However, a single country cannot have a major influence on blocking the agreement. It is worth to mention, Gibraltar has been a major point of contention in British-Spanish relations.
If the British pound is supported by the positive Brexit news, it will go upwards to face the 1.2874 resistance. Further uncertainty will drive the cable down to the support at 1.2677.
- The news reported the Saudi Arabian oil production surged to a record high in early November.
In addition, today the Iraq Deputy oil minister announced the OPEC will meet to stabilize the crude's prices and supply. Tomorrow they will meet to discuss the oil output cuts.
WTI was slightly lifted by the news. Yesterday it fell below the pivot support at 53.69. News on production cut will help WTI to rise above 53.69 and move towards the resistance at 57.48. If more news on the rising oil supply is published, the further falls will drive the oil price below the 53.69 level. The next support is placed at 50.97 pivot.
- Brent fell below the 63.85 level yesterday. Comments on controlling the oil supply will help Brent to stick above the resistance at 63.85. Otherwise, it will fall downwards to the support at 60.65.
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