This week we anticipate inflation data and retail sales for Britain and the US and employment data for Australia. What are the forecasts and how they may affect the currency pairs? Read this week's news wrap!
News to trade on November 6
- The main event for the US dollar for today is mid-term Congressional elections. According to the latest polls, the opposite party of Democrats will likely take control of the House of Representatives. The markets liked the Republican reforms as well as Trump's tax cuts. If the Democrats win, the greenback will fall. In that case, watch the support at 95.7. If the Republicans win, the greenback can move up to the resistance at 96.35.
- US president Trump said the positive outcome on the trade deal with China is highly possible. China, in its turn, agreed to conduct the negotiations. It supported the Antipodeans, driving AUD/USD towards the resistance at 0.7286 and NZD/USD towards 0.6719.
- In other news for the Australian dollar, the Reserve bank of Australia announced no changes to its monetary policy. Low rates are still supporting the economy, housing markets are falling, business conditions are viewed as positive. The overall outlook for the labor market remains positive. The press conference did not have a significant effect on the currency, as the trade talks are playing a more important role at the moment. In case of negative news on this topic, the AUD will fall downwards to the support at 0.6615.
- As for NZD/USD, there are two releases today at 23:45 MT time: employment change and unemployment rate. According to experts, the employment change will increase by 0.5%. A higher-than-expected data will be good for the currency. The level of unemployment will reach 4.4%. If the actual level is lower, the kiwi will be supported. For now, the pair is testing the resistance at 100-day MA at 0.6658. If the employment data will outperform the forecasts, it can rise towards 0.6719. If the USD is strong, the pair will fall. The first support is at 0.6615.
- The Brexit headlines are still the market movers. Yesterday, the EU suggested a compromise on the Irish border backstop. It involves the unique way of ending a temporary customs arrangement with the union. However, the British cabinet of ministers is planning to suggest the other solution, which would be more suitable for Great Britain. GBP/USD is testing 100-day MA at the moment. Positive news on the outcome can lift the cable above the resistance at 1.3105, otherwise, it can fall towards 1.2899.
- The gold is supported by the election uncertainties. If the Democrats win, the price can move upwards to the resistance at $1,242. If the current party leads in the elections, it will increase the risk-on sentiment in the stock market and, therefore, push the price of a safe-haven asset downwards to the support at $1,227.
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