The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
News to trade on November 7
- During the mid-term Congressional elections in the US, the Democrats took more than 30 sits in the House of Representatives. The Republicans will have the control of the Congress. The divided Congress will make it difficult for US president Trump to apply any arguable domestic reforms such as immigration reform and reform on infrastructure investments. That is why analysts anticipate Trump to pay attention to foreign and trade policies. The election results weakened the USD, making the US dollar index test the support at 95.72. If the USD is supported, the index will rise towards the resistance at 96.35. Otherwise, it will fall below 95.72.
- The weak greenback strengthened other key currency pairs.
The pair EUR/USD got the upside momentum from the election results and the risk-on sentiment in the equity market. For now, it is testing the resistance at 1.1461. A further weakness of the USD will help the euro to stick above 1.1461. However, negative news in the Eurozone can pull the pair downwards to the support at 1.1381.
- GBP/USD continues to move up on this week’s Brexit hopes and election results. Yesterday, the cable rose to the resistance at 1.3105. More concerns on the Brexit outcome can help the pair to climb above 1.3105. The next resistance lies at 1.3248. However, new uncertainties can push GBP/USD below 100-day MA at 1.3036. In that case, the support level to watch is at 1.2899.
- The weak USD also affected USD/JPY. The risk-on sentiment in the equity markets did not hold the pair near the resistance at 113.797. On a daily chart at 10:30 MT time, the election results made the USD to trade against the JPY in the red zone. If the pair extends falls, the support is at 112.785. In case the USD is supported by the news, the pair will return to the resistance at 113.797.
- In other news, the most anticipated event for today from the economic calendar is the press conference of the Reserve bank of New Zealand at 23:00 MT time. No major changes to its monetary policy are expected, however, the bank can surprise with the hawkish comments, especially after yesterday's strong employment release. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% (vs 4.4% expected) and employment change increased by 1.1% (vs. 0.5% expected). As a result, the NZD blew off crossing the resistance at 0.6719. For now, NZD/USD is targeting the resistance at 0.6793. New negative comments on the trade war can weaken the kiwi and push it below 0.6719. Hawkish comments from the RBNZ can help it to stick above 0.6793.
- Yesterday, Iran’s oil minister said the sanction from the US would not cut Iran off the oil markets. Earlier, Trump commented the sanctions would come into effect slowly to avoid the high prices. In addition, the US allowed 8 biggest importers keep buying Iranian oil. Brent fell to its August levels trading near $71.94 per barrel. The support for the price lies at $70.47. Today we anticipate the release of crude oil inventories. If the data is lower than the forecast, the prices will rise and the resistance to watch is at $74.24.
- As for WTI, it fell to $61.94 per barrel. The next support is at $61. Shortage of oil production will push the price to the resistance at $64.45.
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The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).