News is what making the risk sentiment fragile today...
News to trade on October 16
- The CPI of New Zealand was released during the Asian session. It increased by 0.9% (vs. expected 0.7%). The reason for it lies in rising petrol prices which reached the levels of June 2011. At the same time, Reserve bank of New Zealand presented its own measure of core CPI. It reached the same level as in the previous quarter at 1.7%.
Due to the positive data, the level NZD/USD rose above the resistance at 0.6550. On a daily chart, the pair is testing the resistance at 0.6596 (50-day MA). If the USD gains strength, the price can move below the support at 0.6550. In that case, the next support is at 0.6486.
- The UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with the leader of the Irish leftist republican party Sinn Fein. They discussed the Irish border problem. There are no further details of the meeting, but this is an interesting fact ahead of tomorrow’s Brexit summit. In other news on Brexit, the German minister Roth said in his recent speech that they were getting the Brexit deal. Following the news, GBP/USD moved up towards the resistance at 1.3263.
In addition, Great Britain anticipates the average weekly earnings index in three months to August. It is expected to reach 2.6%. A higher-than-expected level can also support the GBP.
If there’s more news on Brexit uncertainties, the pair will move below the support at 1.3146 downwards to the next support at 1.31 (100-day MA).
- During the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, it was announced that the next rate hike is not coming in the near-term period. However, it’s still on a high note. The key statements from the bank included worries about the trade war between China and the US, possible global growth, the fall of the home prices. There was nothing hawkish in the comments, so the market reacted insignificantly. On a daily chart, AUD/USD is trading in the red zone, moving down to the support at 0.7096. If the USD weakens today, the resistance for the pair is at 0.7152.
- Italy approved its fiscal plan, which targets the budget deficit at 2.4% of the GDP. For now, the highest fear for the EU is that the real deficit could be higher than 2.4%. However, the EUR was supported by the positive news. For now, EUR/USD is testing the resistance at 1.1593 (50-day MA). The next resistance is at 1.1627 (100-day MA). If the German Zew surveys, scheduled today at 12:00 MT are lower than the forecast, it will create the bearish pressure to the pair. In that situation, the target support level is at 1.1533.
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