News on October 17

The key focus for today will be on the EU Brexit summit. The uncertainties about the final outcome keep affecting the GBP negatively. One of the latest news is connected to the EU chief negotiator Barnier. According to his words, it is possible to extend the Brexit transition for 1 more year. This solution is possible if the British Prime Minister Theresa May accepts a "two-tier" backstop to avoid making the special trade agreement on Northern Ireland. New uncertainties pushed the British pound down. If the final agreements are reached, it will bring positivity to GBP/USD bulls. Postponing the agreement means more uncertainties for the both sides as it will motivate traders to sell the British pound.

In other news for the GBP, the level of consumer inflation (CPI) was released at 11:30 MT time. It reached lower than expected level (2.4% vs 2.6% expected). This data dropped the GBP down.

For now, GBP/USD is testing the support at 1.3146. If the decision on Brexit is not reached, the pair can go down to the next support at 1.3094 (100-day MA). Otherwise, GBP/USD will increase towards the resistance at 1.3263.

Today is the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. The paper will contain the reasons for the previous rate hike and clues about a possible rate hike in December. Earlier the US president Donald Trump said he was unhappy with the choice of Mr. Powell as the head of Federal Reserve. As usual, his statement resulted in uncertainties between buyers and sellers of the US dollar index and formed a Doji candlestick yesterday. For now, the price is trying to recover. The target resistance for the US dollar is at 95 (50-day MA). In case of more negative comments from Mr. Trump, the price can fall below the support at 94.68 (100-day MA).

The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave a speech concerning the labor market. He said the labor market is in good conditions and an "average" economic growth will help to deal with unemployment. AUD/USD has been gaining since the beginning of the week. At the moment the pair is testing the resistance at 0.7152. If the USD is supported, the pair can fall down to the support at 0.7096.

China premier Li said he expects the economy to achieve the goals this year. Despite the trade war, recent data showed a surprisingly high export volume.

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aud - australian dollar

Author: FBS Analyst Team

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