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News to trade on October 4
- The US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made some hawkish comments during his speech yesterday. He was happy about the overall economic conditions, the lowest unemployment in 20 years, rise in wages and stable level of inflation around 2%. In addition, the interest rates are still accommodative according to his words. As a result of Powell’s speech, the USD index gained significantly on Wednesday to 95.4. At the moment, the greenback is decreasing towards the support at 95.36. However, the situation for the USD can change any time, driving the price towards the resistance at 95.96.
- Australia released its trade balance for September. The surplus reached higher than expected level (1.6 billion AUD vs 1.43 billion AUD). It did not affect the aussie a lot, though. AUD/USD keeps falling following the US rate hike and increasing trade tensions. The pair is decreasing to the support at 0.7064, reaching its lowest levels since the beginning of 2016.
- Italian government set a target goal for GDP growth in 2019. It’s planned to reach 1.5%. Moreover, Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio mentioned the government plans to provide 16 billion EUR for citizens’ income. As a result, EUR/USD has increased, moving upwards to the resistance at 1.15.
However, the main problem with budget deficit is still unsolved and delayed. More budget details to the European Commission will be delivered by October 15. Final response will be provided by the end of October.
That is why EUR/USD is very sensitive to any announcements concerning Italy. If there is negative news, the price will go down to the support at 1.1413.
- British Prime Minister Theresa May made a speech during the Conservative party conference yesterday. She said that no deal Brexit would be a bad outcome for the UK and the EU. As a result, the GBP fell below the level at 1.2940 yesterday. Up to this moment, the cable recovers, crossing the resistance at 1.2943 and testing the resistance at the 50-day MA (1.2970). The next resistance is at 1.3080. In case of any negative Brexit data, GBP/USD will fall to the support at 1.2860.
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USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
S&P 500 skyrocketed to the all-time high on optimism that Biden’s fiscal stimulus will support economic growth and boost corporate earnings.
PMI reports from the EU, the UK, and the USA will be released during the day!
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.