The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
News to trade on October 9
- Australian level of business confidence was released today. It increased to 6 from a revised 5 in August. The report contained information about unchanged profitability, employment growth of over 20 thousand jobs per month and stabilization of trading conditions after the August uncertainty around the public policy. The AUD increased after the release of the indicator. However, the strong US dollar did not allow AUD/USD to stick at highs. As a result, the pair started to decline. Up to now, it is trading in the red zone. The pair is falling down to the support at 0.6979. If the USD weakens, the pair can go up to the resistance at 0.7108.
- Great Britain and the EU continue to struggle with an agreement on Brexit. British authorities announced yesterday they could not reach an agreement with the EU unless the other side would suggest future trade talks. In its turn, the EU is anticipating Britain to make the first step. Up to this moment, GBP/USD is testing the support at 1.3052. The next support is at 1.2980. In case of any positive news concerning the future of Brexit, the price can move upwards. If this scenario happens, the resistance is at 1.31 (100-day MA). Keep an eye on the speech of the UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab today during the session at the Commons at 15:30 MT time as he may comment on the Irish border solution.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the world economic outlook. In particular, it downgraded the forecasts for the economic growth for China and the US due to the trade war. Chinese economy is projected to grow by 6.2% next year, while the US economic growth is forecast at 2.5%. At the same time, the IMF upgraded forecasts for India, Europe and Japan in 2018.
- Italy’s parliamentary budget office is not sure about the growth targets set by the government. The government plan includes changes to fiscal policy and the target of 1.5% economic growth in 2019. The key focus for today is on the meeting of the Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria with lawmakers on the government fiscal outline. If the budget office rejects the outline, the government will need to either change its targets or to add more valuable reasons why this level of target was chosen. At the moment EUR/USD is declining. The next support is at 1.1446. If Italy suggests reliable solution on the budget problem, the pair can move up to the resistance at 1.1535.
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US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Australia will release employment change and an unemployment rate on Thursday, October 14, at 03:30 MT (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
Great Britain will publish the Inflation Rate on October 20, at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3).
The bullish movement in the stock market is gaining speed, and Bitcoin ETFs are closer than they might seem. What do we need to know for the next trading week?