The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
NFP forecasts of 8 major banks
What will happen?
The US will reveal Non-farm payrolls today at 15:30 GMT+3. Here are the forecasts of 8 major banks regarding the upcoming NFP report. The common forecast (market consensus) is 500K. What’s yours?
Westpac is Australia's leading bank, located in Sydney. Its economists predict NFP at 600K.
The ING Group is a Dutch banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Amsterdam. The bank expects 450-500K in non-farm payrolls.
TD Securities is a reliable Canadian investment bank. According to economists at TD Securities, NFP will be 525K due to “some normalization in education at the start of the new school year”.
RBC Economics provides economic analysis and forecasts to the largest bank in Canada - the Royal Bank of Canada and its clients. The analysts anticipate NFP at 425K and the unemployment rate at 5.3% (worse than the market consensus of 5.2%).
Deutsche Bank is a multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. Its analysts forecast “NFP growing by 400K and the unemployment rate ticking down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1%”.
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce commonly referred to as CIBC, is one of the "Big Five" banks in Canada. CIBC analysts suggest that around 420K jobs were added.
JP Morgan is a US multinational investment bank headquartered in New York City. The bank is looking for a 575K increase in jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5% because of “the expected rebound in the leisure and hospitality sectors”.
Headquartered in Copenhagen, it is the largest bank in Denmark and a major retail bank in northern Europe. Danske Bank’s analysts said that NFP “around 300K or above will be enough for the Fed to go ahead with tapering.”
Follow the NFP report at 15:30 GMT+3 (MetaTrader time). Don’t know how to trade on NFP? Learn our strategy!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.