The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
NFP will be out on May 7!
What will happen?
One of the most significant economic indicators for the US dollar will come out on Friday at 15:30 MT (GMT+3) - NFP. Non-farm employment change represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding those who work in the farming industry. The more people are employed, the better it is for the economy! Therefore, NFP serves as a base for the future rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The high level of the indicator increases the possibility of rate hikes in the future, which will push the USD upward. On the other hand, the decline in the NFP figures raises concerns about the economic slowdown and reduces the number of projected rate hikes by the Fed.
How to trade on Non-Farm Payrolls?
Pay attention that NFP is published together with the levels of monthly average hourly earnings and unemployment rate. So, there are three indicators to follow. Compare the actual numbers with the market expectations and follow the rule below. Besides, check out our special trading strategy for trading on NFP.
- If all three indicators come out better than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
- If all the indicators are worse than the forecasts, the USD will drop.
- If NFP comes better, but earnings – worse, the USD will spike at first, but it will fall with the second wave.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
The crypto market keeps recovering. Bitcoin has broken above $57,000. The way up to $60,000 is open now!
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).