Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
NZD/USD: testing tactical support
Reserve Bank holds the rate
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the interest rate at 0.25%, where it has been since March. However, it announced the expansion of the quantitative ease program to $60bln from the previous $33 to make sure the borrowing cost if low enough. It stressed that it is ready to reduce the interest rate as well as expand the asset purchase program should there be an indication for it.
On the H1 chart of NZD/USD, the currency pair fell to the tactical resistance of 0.6000, which formed at the end of April and was visited a week ago. Shortly after, it bounces upwards. From the short-term perspective, that’s a significant change of movement base to lower levels and below the Moving Averages, which will be checking now any serious bullish potential.
From a larger perspective, the NZD/USD shifted to the lower boundary of the core movement channel, testing the support of 200-MA slightly above the tactical resistance of 0.6000. Very likely, it will get back up to stay within the area above 200-MA to test 100-MA. If the currency moves above to cross the resistance of the 100-MA and test the 50-MA, that would mean that the monetary policy news hasn’t had much effect on the currency pair in the mid-term.
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Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
Every week we expect many interesting events that can shake the market.