The oil price looks optimistic. What are the reasons?
Oil alert: wait for the inventories
Key events ahead:
Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT time
Yesterday’s private survey showed larger-than-expected cut in oil output. The data by American Petroleum Institute estimated a crude oil inventory draw of 11.1 million barrels (vs. the expectations of 2.11-million barrel draw). It boosted the prices for oil. Today we are awaiting the official release by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to the forecasts, we will see the number of barrels to decline by 2.8 million. If it is bigger, the oil prices will rise higher.
- The price of WTI rose above the 50- and 100- period SMA yesterday. At the moment of writing, it has been testing the $55.82 level just below the 200-period SMA. If the oil data surprises with the bigger-than-expected decline, the current resistance will be broken and the next key resistance will be placed at $56.26. After that, keep an eye on the $56.54 and $56.9 resistance levels. From the downside, the first support is placed at $55.26. After that, we need to pay attention to the $54.8 and $54.5 levels.
- Brent price has been moving towards the $60.4 resistance level. If the price overcomes this resistance, it will target the next level at $60.86. After that, we will pay attention to the $61.15 and $61.41 levels. On the other hand, sellers will keep an eye on the $59.5 level. After that, the next support will lie at $58.55.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.