The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Oil and BTC Surged, EUR Awaits ECB
- Today traders await the European Central Bank to make a policy statement at 14:45 MT (GMT+3). The bank is expected to update its strategy, which may allow inflation to overrun the 2% goal. If it is the case, it will signal that the bank won’t tighten the policy earlier than expected, which will limit the upside potential for the EUR.
- The earnings season continues. Yesterday, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, and Verizon revealed better-than-expected earnings results for the second quarter. It helped to improve the market sentiment. The USD weakened.
- Today, Intel, AT&T, and Twitter will reveal their financial results. AT&T will post its data at 14:00 GMT+3, while Intel and Twitter will make releases after the stock market closes.
- Oil prices skyrocketed! The jump was driven by a drop in US stockpiles and a broader market rally.
- Bitcoin is recovering losses. It has just rose above $32,000 after Musk said Tesla is likely to accept it as payment again. In add, Cathie Wood of ARK Investment claimed that the BTC is a hedge against inflation. However, Guggenheim Partners, an investment firm, forecasts the BTC to drop to $15,000 due to rising competition with other coins.
EUR/USD is moving inside the descending channel. The pair keeps attacking the 1.1800 resistance level but to no avail. Besides, the trendline and the 50-period moving average are strong barriers which the pair will struggle to break. Thus, we might expect a reverse down from the current levels. On the way down, EUR/USD may meet support levels at 1.1770 and 1.1750.
XAU/USD has reversed up after touching the 100-day moving average of $1795. The chain of long lower tails tells us that the price was rejected at the support zone of $1790-1795. Thus, we might expect gold to rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1815 today, but the current momentum is weak and we should wait for some time. In the opposite scenario, if gold breaks below the support zone of $1790-1795, it will fall to the next round number of $1775.
It’s a really interesting movement in the AUD/USD pair. The pair has reversed up from the 0.7300 support level and the last two green candles signal us that the bullish momentum is strong and the rally up may continue till 0.7400. If the pair manages to break it, it may jump to the high of July 16 at 0.7440.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.