The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Oil & Gold Surged, Dollar Weakened on July 6
What you need to know on Tuesday:
- Oil has surged as OPEC+ members failed to make a deal. The worsening fight between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates blocked an increase in oil output. As a result, XBR/USD (Brent oil) has surged above $77.00 and XTI/USD (WTI oil) has surpassed $76.00 for the first time since 2018.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a slower pace of asset purchases but added that interest rates are unlikely to rise before 2024. AUD/USD jumped.
- The New Zealand dollar surged after an optimistic business survey as the positive economic data should push the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates earlier than expected. Markets are priced for the central bank to hike rates to 1% by the end of 2022. NZD/USD rocketed above the high of June 17 at 0.7100.
- The British pound rose after the UK Prime Minister claimed his plans to lift social-distancing restrictions from July 19.
EUR/USD has surged above the 50-period moving average and edging higher to the psychological mark of 1.1900. It may struggle to cross this resistance level on the first try, that’s why we can expect a short pullback to the 1.1880 support before the further rally up. When the pair crosses 1.1900, the way up to the next resistance zone of 1.1940-1.1950 will be clear.
Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above the psychological mark of $1800. It’s likely to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1815. If it breaks above it, it will jump to the key resistance zone of $1830-1833, which will be hard to break on the first try. Support levels are $1800 and $1790.
Finally, let’s analyze NZD/USD. As mentioned above, the New Zealand dollar surged due to the optimistic business survey. However, if we look at the chart, we would notice that the pair has approached the key level of 0.7100, which it has failed to cross a few times already. Thus, the pair is likely to reverse down from it. Support levels are the lows of late June at 0.7050 and the 50-period moving average of 0.7020.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.