How Energy Crisis Affects German PMI August 23, 2022, 10:30 GMT+3 Germany will publish Flash Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday, August 23, at 10:30 MT time (GMT+3)…
Oil Skyrockets, Gold Is Pressed
What drives the market today?
- Australia has revealed strong retail sales. They dropped less than expected: -1.7% vs the forecast of -2.5%. AUD/USD has jumped by nearly 380 points after the release but then paused.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (HK50) rocketed after China’s central bank said it will make all efforts to support the “healthy” development of the property market amid the China Evergrande Group crisis.
- The 10-year US yield reached 1.5%, the record high unseen since June, as traders priced in the soon Fed’s tapering. The US central bank is going to reduce monthly asset buys by $120 billion. The US dollar However, two regional Fed’s presidents resigned after revelations of embarrassing stock trading last year, they were the most hawkish Fed members.
- The oil keeps rallying as concerns of a global energy crunch strengthened. Brent has almost reached $80 a barrel – the level which has been unseen since 2018. WTI crude topped $76 a barrel. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent to reach $90 by the end of this year as the energy market is in a huge deficit.
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey claimed that interest rates could rise as early as this year in the UK. It is a positive sign for the British pound.
EUR/USD has approached the low of August 19 at 1.1670. The euro looks weaker than the US dollar, that’s why the downtrend is likely to continue. If it manages to break through this support level, it will drop to November lows of 2020 at 1.1630. Resistance levels are 1.1700 and 1.1740.
Gold has formed the triangle pattern. If it drops below the lower line of the triangle and the candle closes below it, it will fall to the August low of $1730. After that, the metal may plunge to the psychological mark of $1700. Resistance levels are $1780 and $1800.
USD/JPY is rocketing like crazy. It has been making large green candles for 5 days in a row. The 111.50 should be a strong resistance level, which the pair may struggle to cross and pulled back to 111.00. The RSI is getting closer to the overbought zone, and the pair has already jumped above the upper line of Bollinger Bands. Be ready for reverse down.
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
Every week we expect many interesting events that can shake the market.