Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Oil Skyrockets, Gold Is Pressed
What drives the market today?
- Australia has revealed strong retail sales. They dropped less than expected: -1.7% vs the forecast of -2.5%. AUD/USD has jumped by nearly 380 points after the release but then paused.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (HK50) rocketed after China’s central bank said it will make all efforts to support the “healthy” development of the property market amid the China Evergrande Group crisis.
- The 10-year US yield reached 1.5%, the record high unseen since June, as traders priced in the soon Fed’s tapering. The US central bank is going to reduce monthly asset buys by $120 billion. The US dollar However, two regional Fed’s presidents resigned after revelations of embarrassing stock trading last year, they were the most hawkish Fed members.
- The oil keeps rallying as concerns of a global energy crunch strengthened. Brent has almost reached $80 a barrel – the level which has been unseen since 2018. WTI crude topped $76 a barrel. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent to reach $90 by the end of this year as the energy market is in a huge deficit.
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey claimed that interest rates could rise as early as this year in the UK. It is a positive sign for the British pound.
Tech outlook
EUR/USD has approached the low of August 19 at 1.1670. The euro looks weaker than the US dollar, that’s why the downtrend is likely to continue. If it manages to break through this support level, it will drop to November lows of 2020 at 1.1630. Resistance levels are 1.1700 and 1.1740.
Gold has formed the triangle pattern. If it drops below the lower line of the triangle and the candle closes below it, it will fall to the August low of $1730. After that, the metal may plunge to the psychological mark of $1700. Resistance levels are $1780 and $1800.
USD/JPY is rocketing like crazy. It has been making large green candles for 5 days in a row. The 111.50 should be a strong resistance level, which the pair may struggle to cross and pulled back to 111.00. The RSI is getting closer to the overbought zone, and the pair has already jumped above the upper line of Bollinger Bands. Be ready for reverse down.
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Latest news
What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
