Trade ideas for August 2-6
What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
OPEC is eyed, 15 million J&J's vaccines were mixed up
What you need to know on April 1:
- Oil modestly rose this morning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. It’s expected that supply cuts will be extended (it will push oil up), but some surprises may appear as well. Bloomberg mentioned that an output increase may be discussed (it will press oil down).
- 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine were mixed up. The deliveries will be delayed. The company mitigated the negative effect by saying it met its vaccine delivery target for March – 20 million shots.
- Fresh lockdowns in France and Canada’s Ontario province worsened the market sentiment. News is negative for the euro and the Canadian dollar.
- Joe Biden unveiled the $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan on Wednesday. The market reaction was moderate. Nasdaq 100 surged overnight, outrunning S&P 500.
- Today is also April Fool’s Day! Wait for some fake and funny news like Volkswagen rebranding to Voltswagen.
Technical analysis
EUR/AUD has formed a symmetrical pattern. Thus, we should wait for the breakout. The upper line of the triangle coincides with the 50-day moving average of 1.5550, making it harder to break. If it manages to cross it, the way up to the recent highs of 1.5600 and 1.5660 will be open. In a more probable scenario, if it reverses and drops below the lower line of 1.5450, it may fall further to the recent lows of 1.5370 and 1.5260.
EUR/USD is moving down. It has failed to break the trend line so far at 1.1700, but if it does, the way down to November’s low of 1.1630 will be open. On the flip side, if it jumps above the high of March 26 at 1.1790, it may rise to the 200-period moving average of 1.1870.
USD/JPY is moving sideways just below 111.00. If it finally manages to break through this resistance level, the way up to the next round number of 111.50 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below yesterday’s low of 110.50, it may fall to the next support of 110.25.
GBP/USD is trading inside the descending channel. If it manages to break the support level of 1.3750, it may fall to yesterday’s low of 1.3715. In the opposite scenario, the move above yesterday’s high of 1.3800 will push the pair higher to the 100-period moving average of 1.3840.
AUD/USD sharply dropped. If it crosses the lows of late December at 0.7510, the way down to the next support level of 0.7400 will be open. On the flip side, if it jumps above yesterday’s high of 0.7640, the way up to the high of March 22 at 0.7750 will be open.
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Will the BOE Act as the Lockdown Is Over?
The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
Will the RBA Add Strength to the Aussie?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).
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