The winter is coming, and risky markets expect a rally to come with it. Will this December be bullish for stocks, crypto, and gold? A pack of news will surely help you out.
ORACLE: the TikTok battle
If you do business worldwide, and it generates billions, it will go far beyond an exclusively business domain entering the world of geopolitics and national interest. Such is the case of TikTok. To young performers, it is known as an app where you share your creative ads dancing or doing anything else that may keep the attention of a multimillion audience for several minutes. To the US security and intelligence, it is known as a Chinese data and social networking company that threatens to tap into the sovereign territory of the US social data. Roughly, that is the concern that made the administration of the US President impose the September-15 deadline for selling the US operations of TikTok to an American company.
Previously, Microsoft used to the main company in focus to continue TikTok’s US operations. However, the negotiations with this potential buyer went aside as Oracle took over the stage, and the people around the issue are pointing to the fact that the deal is very possible. But this is not the only thing people are pointing out: Oracle has been financially supporting Donald Trump’s campaigns and has been more than just cooperative with the US President until now. So we have an international business, the US-China relations, and the US elections all in one knot around Oracle now. With all this in view, stocks of Oracle may soar in case the deal is successfully sealed: not because there are a lot of truly positive business outcomes from it, but because of the heightened degree of discussions around the matter.
On the daily chart, the recent spike that still ended up below the previous high corresponds to the announcement that Oracle is likely to take over the race over TikTok from Microsoft. The bearish ending is logical for that bar because there is no deal signed yet, and in the end, what we have is just talks and negotiations. In the meantime, the deadline of September 15 is nearing – that means, even if we don’t see another bullish spike, there will be increased volatility in any case. In the end, it falls well into the equilateral upward channel Oracle’s stock has been in since March. Expect $56 to provide firm support while $62 may be the objective for bulls in the most aggressively bullish scenario. Otherwise, the area of $58-59 seems a fair target range for Oracle stock in the short term.
A new week will be interesting as we await Central Banks Meetings, more earnings reports, and NFP. Let's review the main headlines for this Monday as we prepare for volatile days ahead!
Bloomberg says yesterday’s movement was so far the wildest. It was the first time in history for the US500 to crash by 2% and close the day 2.8% above the neutral line. There’re several possible reasons for the move.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.