The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Poor US jobless claims shocked investors
The number of Americans asking for new unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped last week: 770,000 vs the expected 704,000. It seems that everything has been done to improve the indicators of the labor market: $1.9 trillion stimulus package was unveiled and the vaccination pace was really fast. Thus, the fact that the numbers came out worse than anticipated surprised investors.
As a rule, the poor data weakens the currency. But despite this rule, the USD surged and pressed down its peers. EUR/USD has broken through the 50-period moving average of 1.1915, clearing the way down to the recent lows of 1.1890. The move below this support will press the pair down to the low of March 10 at 1.1870. On the flip side, if it jumps above the high of March 15 at 1.1955, it may rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1990.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.