Market Crash Incoming?
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
Poor US sales pushed USD down
The US dollar continues dipping down, while the Euro, the pound, and the JPY are on the rise. The US retails sales came out worse than expected and added pressure on the greenback. Indeed, the pandemic worsened in the USA, many states imposed curfews and social restrictions. In response, Biden pledged to unveil another relief package, but it’s unlikely to happen until after January 20 – his inauguration. Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a meeting yesterday and claimed that the economic recovery has slowed, that’s why more fiscal and monetary support would be needed.
EUR/USD has just crossed the resistance at October’s high of 1.18760. Therefore, the way to the key psychological mark of 1.1900 is open. There are support levels at yesterday’s low of 1.1850 and the 50-period moving average of 1.1835, which the pair will struggle to cross.
The British pound got a tailwind after the announcement that the Brexit deal can be done next week. Talks are set to continue in Brussels, but the UK and the EU still have some disagreements. According to Ireland Prime Minister, the UK economy isn’t ready for a no-deal Brexit, so we can assume both sides should reach the agreement eventually.
The pound has reached the significant resistance. If it breaks out 1.3275, the way to September’s high of 1.3400 will be clear. On the flip side, the move below the support of 1.3200 will drive the pair to the low of November 12 at 1.3110.
The WTI oil price was moving sideways yesterday as it was the OPEC+ meeting, where the organization claimed to cut oil output only for three months. Analysts expected at least 6 months. However, by the end of the day, WTI oil approached $42.00 again. If it manages to cross this level, the way to the high of August 26 at $43.50 will be clear. Support levels are $40.00 and $39.00.
Finally, let’s talk about the S&P 500. Yesterday was the announcement that Tesla will be added to the stock index on December 21. There’s no doubt that the S&P 500 will rise in the long-term. Goldman Sachs expects it to rise to 4 300 by the end of 2021. However, now it’s dipping. If it crosses the 50-period moving average of 3 560, it will fall to the low of November 13 of 3 520. On the flip side, if it jumps above Monday’s high of 3 630, it may surge to the all-time high of 3 660 then.
Follow inflation reports from Eurozone at 12:00 MT time and then from Canada at 15:30 MT time!
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