The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Post-Fed Releases for USD & CAD Traders
US CB Consumer Confidence
September 27, 17:00 GMT+3.
The Conference Board, one of the leading US research group organizations, will publish the CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, September 27, at 17:00 GMT+3.
The Consumer Confidence Index is a composite metric based on a household survey. The households give their opinion on the current and future economic conditions. If the indicator is high, consumers' financial confidence tends to be stronger.
The rising inflation and anticipation of the Fed monetary policy decisions are the main factors driving the USD now. American households might sensitively react to the changes in these factors. As a result, their views build the outlook for economic activity in the country.
Last time, the index increased to 103.2 after three months of declines. This happened because of the slowdown in US Inflation figures in August. This time the situation may be completely different, as high inflation is back in the game.
- If the actual number is higher than expected, USD will rise.
- Otherwise, USD will fall.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD.
September 29, 15:30 GMT+3.
Canada releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Thursday, September 29, at 15:30 GMT+3. This is the leading indicator of economic activity that shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
While high inflation significantly impacts the economy, GDP data is also essential for traders to follow. The reason is the GDP figures’ slowdown amid the current economic situation. This is a sign of a recession and a negative factor for a local currency.
In August, the Canadian GDP growth was in line with the forecasts (+0.1%). The CAD did not have a big reaction to this update.
- If the actual number is higher than expected, CAD will be supported.
- Otherwise, CAD will go lower.
Instruments to trade: USDCAD, CADCHF, CADJPY.
US Core PCE Price Index
September 30, 2022, 15:30 GMT+3.
The United States will publish Core PCE Price Index on Friday, September 30, at 15:30 GMT+3. The indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by individual consumers, excluding food and energy prices.
Inflation keeps grabbing a lot of traders’ attention. While CPI seems more important due to its early release, the Core Price Index also provides essential insights into consumer spending behavior.
Last time, the release slid down by 0.1%, lower than the consensus of 0.2%. As CPI has already outperformed the forecasts this month and boosted the USD, PCE Price Index may repeat its success.
- If the release is greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
- If the release is lower than the forecasts, the USD will fall.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDJPY.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.