Rate decision by the RBNZ: the downside risks for the kiwi

Rate decision by the RBNZ: the downside risks for the kiwi

The Reserve bank of New Zealand will release the monetary policy statement and its interest rate at 3:00 MT on November 13. After that, the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr will conduct a press conference at 4:00 MT.

After the interest rate remained unchanged at the record low of 1% during the previous meeting, the regulator noted that there remains scope for more monetary stimulus as the economy needs to be supported. Now, analysts forecast the 64.3% chance of a rate cut by 25 basis points. The expectations of this kind of decision have increased after the release of New Zealand's business confidence and job data last week. The first indicator showed an improvement to -42.4 in October, but the figures are still negative. At the same time,  the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.

• If the RBNZ cuts its rate, the NZD will fall;

• If the RBNZ doesn’t cut its rate, the NZD will rise.

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