Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
Retail data for the US: down again?
The US will publish headline and core retail sales at 15:30 MT time on May 15.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF
While the headline retail sales show the total value, the core indicator excludes sales of automobiles due to their volatility. Based on their data, we may judge the economic activity of a country and the level of consumer spending. During the previous release, both indicators fell significantly. The headline one declined by -8.7% (vs. -8% expected). The core indicator surprised traders positively, though, if we may call it "positive". The indicator fell by "just" -4.5% (vs. the forecast of -4.9%). The pandemic hit US retailers hard as well as the US dollar. The greenback fell to the red zone on the release.Will we see a different outcome this time? There is a little chance that we do, but if that happens the US dollar will be a winner. Remember the simple rules:
• if the actual levels of indicators are higher than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
• if the actual levels of indicators are worse than the forecasts, the USD will fall.
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.
Canada will publish Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on June 21 at 15:30 GMT+3.