Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Risk appetite is back. How to trade on June 16?
Fundamental factors
- The main driver of the day is the additional stimulus from Trump. He claimed yesterday that the US administration would pour 1 trillion dollars in infrastructure spending. As a result, the market sentiment has switched to risk-on as now it depends a lot on the future economic recovery.
- Another important issue is the successful Brexit meeting. The UK and the EU made a step closer to reach a deal yesterday. The UK PM Boris Johnson believes that prospects for an accord are “very good”. Perhaps trade talks can be over much earlier than the deadline that is scheduled for December. It’s a really good news for GBP.
Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been rising rapidly since yesterday. The reason behind is that the US dollar started loosing on the improved market sentiment. The pair has been trading in a range between 1.1170 and 1.1375 for quite a long time. All traders can’t wait for the price to break out or break down those levels. Now it’s headed towards the key resistance level at 1.1375. If it crosses it, it will open doors to the next resistance at 1.145. Otherwise, if the price goes below the support at 1.1310 or 78.6% Fibonacci level, it may fall even deeper to 1.125.
GBP/USD
The British pound rose on encouraging Brexit negotiations. GBP/USD is approaching the 200-day moving average at 1.2680. If it manages to break it, it will surge to 1.2750 after that. Support is at 1.2500.
S&P 500
S&P 500 has rebounded after the huge fall during the last week. Now S&P 500 is moving up towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the 3135 mark. If it breaks through it, then the price may rise to 3230. Support is at 3050.
Crude oil
The Brent oil price has almost reached $40 a barrel. It gained on the optimistic market sentiment. The price will meet the next resistance at $42. Support levels are $38 and $34. According to the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, the oil demand is recovering quite quickly. Moreover, huge OPEC+ output cuts continue, and countries, which cheated before, make extra cuts to state their commitment. However, the rebound of the oil market still hugely hinges on a possible second wave of new infections.
Next market drivers
- The US retail sales will be released at 15:30 MT time. If the numbers come better than expected, it will underpin the current risk-on market sentiment.
- The Fed’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, will make a report to Congress at 17:00 MT time. His speech consists of 2 parts. The first one is the prepared statement. The second one is a question and answer session. Traders are interested more in the last one as Powell doesn’t know questions before and he may unveil some unscripted moments that add the fresh market volatility.
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Latest news
What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
