Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Risk-averse sentiment prevails on the market
- The market sentiment deteriorated because of the election uncertainty and worries about rising virus cases all over the world.
- Germany and France imposed lockdowns to stop the Covid-19 spread. The euro dramatically dropped.
- The Bank of Japan held a meeting and expressed optimism on the economic recovery. The central bank left policy settings unchanged, indicating that it has made enough already to support the economy.
- The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% for at least two years as the Canadian economy is slowly recovering from the coronavirus slump.
- Oil prices plummeted on fears for new lockdowns.
EUR/USD is trading inside of the channel. Since it has touched the lower trendline, the move up is quite possible. However, the fresh virus outbreak in Europe may weigh on the single-area currency. If it manages to close above the 200-day moving average, the way to the key psychological mark of 1.1800 will be clear. On the flip side, if it drops below yesterday’s low of 1.1730, it may fall to the key support of 1.1700. Follow the ECB report and press conference as it will impact the euro.
The Canadian dollar dipped yesterday amid the risk-averse sentiment, lower oil prices, and BOC’s report. Today the loonie is trying to rebound from its losses. If USD/CAD manages to drop below the low of October 6 at 1.3250, it may fall to the 200-period moving average of 1.3230. In the opposite scenario, the move above yesterday’s high of 1.3320 will drive the pair to October’s peak of 1.3340.
USD/JPY is taking a break after falling. If USD/JPY drops below yesterday’s low of 104.20, the way to the key psychological mark of 104.00 will be open. Otherwise, the move above the resistance of 104.50 will drive the pair to the high of October 22 at 104.85.
XAU/USD bounced off the support of $1 875, but if it manages to fall below it, the way to $1 850 will be clear. On the flip side, the move above the 100-period moving average of $1 890 will drive the yellow metal to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1 900.
Follow further news:
- The US GDP in combination with unemployment claims will be out at 14:30 MT time.
- The ECB will make a statement at 14:45 MT time.
- The US pending home sales will come out at 16:00 MT time. Stay tuned!
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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change (NFP), and the unemployment rate on July 8, at 15:30 MT time.
The Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve, will reveal a detailed record of the central bank’s last meeting on July 6 at 21:00 MT.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its cash rate and make a statement about future rate policy on Tuesday, July 5, at 07:30 MT.