Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Risk-on is back on the market
How to trade on July 21?
Fundamental factors
- European leaders reached a deal on the 750-billion-euros recovery fund. That joint debt will help all the EU countries to mitigate the coronavirus damage and recover faster. The euro surged after that news.
- The Covid-19 vaccine, which was created by the Oxford University and AstraZeneca, showed encouraging results. Human trials turned out safe and efficient. Stocks rallied after the report.
- The Swiss trade balance came out better than expected – 3.22 billion francs, while the forecast was 3.15 billion francs. The CHF gained.
- The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe said that the Australian dollar is trading broadly in line with the fundamentals. In combination with the current risk-on sentiment those factors may push the AUD higher.
- The UK public sector net borrowing beat all estimates. It was 34.8 billion pounds, while analysts expected 34.5 billion pounds. The GBP climbed up.
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Technical tips
S&P 500
The S&P 500 has almost reached the 5-month high at 3 260. It will meet soon the resistance at the high of January 23 at 3 225. If it breaks it through, it may surge towards the all-time high at 3 390. Support levels are at the lows of July 16 and July 7 at 3 190 and 3 110, relatively.
XAU/USD
Gold has reached the all-time high at $1 820. It tends to rise along with stocks these days as investors hedge their exposure to riskier assets. As long as the stock rally continues, the gold price will rise as well.
Support levels are at the 50-day moving average at $1 807 and at the key psychological mark at $1 800.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has approached the resistance at the 200-day moving average at 1.2700. If it breaks it through, it will surge to the high of June 10 at 1.2750. Otherwise, if the market sentiment deteriorates, the British pound may fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2520. The move below will push the price to the 100-day moving average at 1.2415.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has reached the one-year high at 0.7040. If it rallies further, it will meet the resistance at the high of April 7, 2019 at 0.7170. Support levels are at the low of July 13 of this year at 0.6940 and at the low of June 19 at 0.6830.
Follow up:
- The Canadian retail sales will be published at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!
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Latest news
US PCE May Soar Soon
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
Bank of England Tries to Save the Pound
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
