We are now past the middle of January, and this means that the largest US companies will report their earnings for the fourth quarter and many of them will provide the results of the entire 2020.
Risk-on is back on the market
How to trade on July 21?
- European leaders reached a deal on the 750-billion-euros recovery fund. That joint debt will help all the EU countries to mitigate the coronavirus damage and recover faster. The euro surged after that news.
- The Covid-19 vaccine, which was created by the Oxford University and AstraZeneca, showed encouraging results. Human trials turned out safe and efficient. Stocks rallied after the report.
- The Swiss trade balance came out better than expected – 3.22 billion francs, while the forecast was 3.15 billion francs. The CHF gained.
- The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe said that the Australian dollar is trading broadly in line with the fundamentals. In combination with the current risk-on sentiment those factors may push the AUD higher.
- The UK public sector net borrowing beat all estimates. It was 34.8 billion pounds, while analysts expected 34.5 billion pounds. The GBP climbed up.
The S&P 500 has almost reached the 5-month high at 3 260. It will meet soon the resistance at the high of January 23 at 3 225. If it breaks it through, it may surge towards the all-time high at 3 390. Support levels are at the lows of July 16 and July 7 at 3 190 and 3 110, relatively.
Gold has reached the all-time high at $1 820. It tends to rise along with stocks these days as investors hedge their exposure to riskier assets. As long as the stock rally continues, the gold price will rise as well.
Support levels are at the 50-day moving average at $1 807 and at the key psychological mark at $1 800.
GBP/USD has approached the resistance at the 200-day moving average at 1.2700. If it breaks it through, it will surge to the high of June 10 at 1.2750. Otherwise, if the market sentiment deteriorates, the British pound may fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2520. The move below will push the price to the 100-day moving average at 1.2415.
AUD/USD has reached the one-year high at 0.7040. If it rallies further, it will meet the resistance at the high of April 7, 2019 at 0.7170. Support levels are at the low of July 13 of this year at 0.6940 and at the low of June 19 at 0.6830.
- The Canadian retail sales will be published at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
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The Canadian central bank will make a monetary policy report and announce interest rates on Wednesday, January 20, at 17:00 MT time. Also, the BOC press conference will be held later.
USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.