What will happen? The US Q2 Gross Domestic Product will be announced at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3) on Thursday, July 29…
South Africa got ‘junk’ status from Moody’s
What’s going on?
Moody’s downgraded the country to ‘junk’ status on Friday. It sent the country’s CDS up 31 basis points to 439 on Monday, data from IHS Markit showed. The country was stripped of its last remaining investment grade rating. In fact, South Africa’s economy collapsed before the coronavirus outbreak.
South Africa’s 5-year credit default swaps - used by investors to insure against a government debt default - jumped to their highest level since 2009. As a result, it will fall out of the FTSE World Government Bond Index after April, which could prompt significant capital outflows. Moreover, it will also surge borrowing costs, and that will make it even more difficult for the government to close the budget gap.
What does it mean?
Let’s look at the chart below that represents USD/ZAR exchange rate monthly. The rand fell to a record low of 17.9630. The direction of USD/ZAR is skewed to the upside. It may reach 18.0000 mark and break above previous 2016 high of 17.7840. On the downside, USD/ZAR remains supported above 15.3750, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Today the Fed will make a policy statement at 21:00 GMT+3. This event will affect all the currency pairs with the USD and thus almost the all Forex market!
The overall market sentiment is risk-on. The S&P 500 index (US 500) is getting close to the all-time high. Oil is recovering quickly from its recent losses.
What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
The Fed held a much-awaited meeting yesterday. The bank hasn’t made any policy changes. As a result, the USD weakened and EUR/USD rocketed. Jump in to know all the latest news!