USD rose on market uncertainty
The US dollar turned to the upside on Monday. Let's discuss what to expect next from the market.
Stocks surged after Trump left hospital
The US president is back to White House after three days spent in the hospital. Riskier assets rose, while safe havens dipped.
Fundamentals
- All attention to Trump’s fast recovery from Covid-19. His return back to work has improved the market sentiment.
- Besides, escalating new virus cases and also Trump being part of that increased chances for the launch of a fiscal stimulus package. When officials finally unveil it, it should boost the sentiment even more.
- Elsewhere, national polls have pointed to the victory of Joe Biden. As people see the clear winner, they stopped being afraid of a close election, and also aggressive and cut-throat competition.
- US ISM Services PMI came out better than analysts expected: 57.8 vs. the forecast of 56.3.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates and yield target unchanged. According to Capital Economics, the RBA’s statement “sounded dovish and left the door open for additional stimulus”.
- Chinese people enjoy the vacation, named the Golden Week. Whereas the whole world is engulfed with the fresh virus outbreak, China has taken infections under control and has shown a steady economic rebound.
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Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has beautifully bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.17050 and rallied to 1.1800, but failed to cross this level. If it manages to break through it, it may rise to the 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.1810 and then to 61.8% Fibo level of 1.1860. In the opposite scenario, the move below the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.17640 will drive the pair back to 1.17050.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is edging higher amid the overall risk-on sentiment. The move above the high of September 16 at 3 420 will push the stock index upwards to 3 480. On the flip side, the move below the 100-period moving average of 3 330 will push the price lower to September’s low of 3 205.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has reversed from the key resistance of 0.7210 at the 50.0% Fibo level. If it crosses the 38.2% Fibo level of 0.7160, it will fall deeper to Friday’s low of 0.7140. In the opposite scenario, if the aussie manages to break the 50.0% level, it will jump to 0.7260, as the current risk-on mood may help it to climb up.
Gold
Finally, let’s talk about XAU/USD. It has been trading in the ascending channel. The move above yesterday’s high of $1 920 will push the price the 200-period moving average at $1 926. Otherwise, if the risky mood weighs further on the precious metal and it drops below the recent low of $1 890, the doors to $1 880 will be open.
Follow up:
- Australian Annual Budget will be published at 11:30 MT time.
- ECB’s President Lagarde will speak 5 minutes later.
- The Canadian Trade Balance will be out at 15:30 MT time.
- Fed’s Powell will deliver a report at 17:40 MT time.
Similar
Final debate and stimulus talks are in focus
Three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. Let's look how market reacts.
All attention to Euro
EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI will come out on Friday at 11:00 MT time!
Latest news
EUR dropped as Covid-19 engulfed Europe
The focus of traders’ attention shifted from Brexit and the US stimulus to the coronavirus . The WHO claimed that Europe become the new Covid-19 epicenter.
Is the Canadian economy recovering?
Canada will publish the monthly GDP growth on October 30 at 14:30 MT time.
The ECB is going to move the euro
The European Central Bank publishes the monetary policy statement alongside with an update on the interest rate on October 29, at 14:45 MT time.
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