Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Strong dollar ahead of NFP
Latest news
- Stock indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq skyrocketed to record highs, driven by the better-than-expected earnings results and improving Covid-19 trends. At the same time, the central banks remain supportive, while Joe Biden takes all efforts to unveil the $1.9 stimulus package.
- US jobless claims showed that 779 000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week, while the forecast was 828 000. Earlier, the ADP report showed an increase in employment in the private sector. Based on that, NFP should beat estimates.
- The British pound surged yesterday after the Bank of England’s meeting. The message was quite optimistic: the BOE forecasted the UK is heading for a sustained recovery due to the fast pace of vaccinations.
- Crude oil keeps climbing up amid the massive OPEC+ output cuts. Elsewhere, Wednesday’s EIA report encouraged investors with the 1 million drop in crude oil inventories.
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Technical analysis
EUR/USD dropped to the 100-period moving average (MA) at 1.1950. The pair is unlikely to drop below this level on the first try. Firstly, the price went below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. Secondly, the RSI indicator got closer to the 30 level. The drop below it will signal the oversold area. The move above the psychological mark of 1.2000 will drive the euro up to the next round number of 1.2050. Support levels are 1.1950 and 1.1900.
GBP/USD is still moving inside an ascending channel. Yesterday, it bounced off the lower line of this channel due to BOE’s encouraging report. If it manages to jump above the psychological mark of 1.3700, the way up to the high of February 1 at 1.3750 will be clear. Support levels are 1.3650 and 1.3600.
USD/JPY surged to the 200-day moving average of 105.60. The pair shouldn’t be able to move above it on the first try as it has failed to cross this resistance a few times already. Elsewhere, the RSI jumped above the 70 mark, signaling the overbought area. Therefore, the price will pull back to the downside rather than break out 105.60. The move below the psychological mark of 105.00 will drive the pair to the next round number 104.50. Resistance levels are 105.60 and 106.00.
Finally, let’s make some analysis of gold. XAU/USD dropped below the key level of $1 800 and pulled back to it. If bears keep momentum, the yellow metal may drop to the low of November 30 at $1 775. The next support will be at the June low of $1 760. Resistance levels are $1 850 and $1 870.
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
