Strong dollar ahead of NFP

Strong dollar ahead of NFP

Latest news

  • Stock indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq skyrocketed to record highs, driven by the better-than-expected earnings results and improving Covid-19 trends. At the same time, the central banks remain supportive, while Joe Biden takes all efforts to unveil the $1.9 stimulus package.
  • US jobless claims showed that 779 000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week, while the forecast was 828 000. Earlier, the ADP report showed an increase in employment in the private sector. Based on that, NFP should beat estimates.
  • The British pound surged yesterday after the Bank of England’s meeting. The message was quite optimistic: the BOE forecasted the UK is heading for a sustained recovery due to the fast pace of vaccinations.
  • Crude oil keeps climbing up amid the massive OPEC+ output cuts. Elsewhere, Wednesday’s EIA report encouraged investors with the 1 million drop in crude oil inventories.
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Technical analysis

EUR/USD dropped to the 100-period moving average (MA) at 1.1950. The pair is unlikely to drop below this level on the first try. Firstly, the price went below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. Secondly, the RSI indicator got closer to the 30 level. The drop below it will signal the oversold area. The move above the psychological mark of 1.2000 will drive the euro up to the next round number of 1.2050. Support levels are 1.1950 and 1.1900.


GBP/USD is still moving inside an ascending channel. Yesterday, it bounced off the lower line of this channel due to BOE’s encouraging report. If it manages to jump above the psychological mark of 1.3700, the way up to the high of February 1 at 1.3750 will be clear. Support levels are 1.3650 and 1.3600.


USD/JPY surged to the 200-day moving average of 105.60. The pair shouldn’t be able to move above it on the first try as it has failed to cross this resistance a few times already. Elsewhere, the RSI jumped above the 70 mark, signaling the overbought area. Therefore, the price will pull back to the downside rather than break out 105.60. The move below the psychological mark of 105.00 will drive the pair to the next round number 104.50. Resistance levels are 105.60 and 106.00.


Finally, let’s make some analysis of gold. XAU/USD dropped below the key level of $1 800 and pulled back to it. If bears keep momentum, the yellow metal may drop to the low of November 30 at $1 775. The next support will be at the June low of $1 760. Resistance levels are $1 850 and $1 870.




USD Holds the Line
USD Holds the Line

The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

US Dollar Prepares for the Pump
US Dollar Prepares for the Pump

On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies. 

Uptrend in Gold Starts Now
Uptrend in Gold Starts Now

Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!

Latest news

Market Crash Incoming?
Market Crash Incoming?

This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.

What Currency Will Overperform?
What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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