The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Strong EUR vs weak USD
- The market sentiment is mainly driven by optimistic vaccine news and hopes for the new US stimulus package. US officials are considering now the aid of $908 billion, much larger than the previously proposed.
- As for the vaccine news, the UK finally approved the emergency use of Pfizer’s vaccine. The widespread vaccinations will start in the UK as early as next week. Other countries are also going to do the same soon. The first vaccine approval pushed the safe-haven USD even lower.
- The US ADP report showed that private sector employment increased by 307 000, while the forecast was 433 000. That data also added pressure on the already fragile USD.
- The Brexit progress continues. Yesterday, EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier claimed that “a deal hangs in the balance ... differences still persist on the three main issues”. The British pound dropped after Barnier’s comment. Notably, Brexit talks continue for 1 623 days, and it’s just 28 days left till the deadline. It’s said that the deal may be reached next week during the December European Council summit.
- Follow unemployment claims, ISM Services PMI, and OPEC+ meeting.
EUR/USD keeps rallying up driven by the weak US dollar. If it manages to break above the psychological mark of 1.2150, the way up to 1.2200 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, if it falls below yesterday’s low of 1.2055, it may drop back to the support of 1.2000. Be cautious as the price is more likely to pull back from support levels to the upside rather than break through to the downside.
XAU/USD is approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1 840. Some selling pressure is expected near this area. If it finally manages to break through it, the doors towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1 865 will be open. On the flip side, the move below yesterday’s low of $1 810 will drive gold lower to the key psychological mark of $1 800.
EUR/GBP has finally escaped the descending channel it had been trading since September. If it jumps above yesterday’s high of 0.9068, the way up to October’s high of 0.9130 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below the 200-period moving average of 0.9000, the way down to Tuesday’s low of 0.8945 will be clear.
WTI oil is edging higher ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, where the crucial decision will be made. The main topic is the oil output cuts. The move above yesterday’s high of $45.65 will drive oil to $46.00. Support levels are $45.00 and $44.65. Follow the OPEC+ decision as it will have a huge impact on oil. If they decide to prolong output cuts, oil prices will surge. Otherwise – drop. To trade WTI oil, you need WTI-21F.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
The crypto market keeps recovering. Bitcoin has broken above $57,000. The way up to $60,000 is open now!
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).