Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Strong USD on Tuesday
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting. Notably, it’s the fourth day of gains for the USD. Why is this happening?
Fundamentals
- 10-year US Treasury yields reached 1.15%, which is the highest level unseen since March. Higher yields should increase the demand for the greenback.
- As for the stock market, investors are cautious and avoid aggressive bets on stocks as they are running too high. Whereas, the Covid-19 pandemic hasn’t been still taken under control.
- By the way, Donald Trump is having the last days of his presidency. Joe Biden is going to have an inauguration on January 20.
- Last week the NFP report came out much worse than it was expected. The negative numbers rose chances for the greater fiscal stimulus.
- Biden pledged to inject trillions of dollars to support the US economy. However, most analysts consider that the USD will rise despite the huge fiscal stimulus package as US Treasury yields are rising. At the same time, gold will dip as it pays no interest, so investors will favor the greenback.
- In opposite, Commerzbank claimed that they expect gold “to begin climbing again before long” amid relatively low-interest rates in the US.
Technical tips
EUR/USD steeply tumbled. The 200-period moving average at 1.2140 stopped the pair from further falling. If it manages to break it, the way down to the next support of 1.2110 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, the breakout above the psychological mark of 1.2200 will drive the pair up to the 100-period moving average of 1.2240.
Let’s look at the US stock benchmark. S&P 500 is moving sideways. The move above the 50-period moving average of 3 800 will drive the stock index to yesterday’s high of 3 806. On the flip side, the move below the recent lows of 3 790 will press S&P down to the next support of 3 780.
GBP/USD is trading in an ascending channel. If the pair jumps above the 50-period moving average of 1.3590, the doors towards the next resistance of 1.3660 will be open. In opposite, if the pound drops below the 200-period MA, it may dip to the lower trend line at 1.3350.
Finally, let’s talk about gold. It has been moving in a descending channel since August. If the gold price closes above the 50-day MA of $1 870, it will rise to the key psychological mark of $1 900. Otherwise, if it manages to break through the support of the 200-day MA at $1 835, it may drop to $1 800.
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Latest news
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.
What Can Happen to the CAD after the Retail Data?
Canada will publish Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on June 21 at 15:30 GMT+3.
