The OPEC meeting and the US Nonfarm Payrolls rocked the market last week. The market is torn between optimism about the global economic recovery and concerns about the new coronavirus strains.
The ECB meeting pushes EUR/USD up
The European Central Bank (ECB) conference took place today, September 13. The ECB didn’t change its policy. It was anticipated by investors. There had been worries about an influence of the lower economic forecasts on the EUR.
ECB updated the data concerned GDP growth for the next two years. According to the president of the ECB Mario Draghi’s report, gross domestic product will grow by 2.0% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. The small decrease in expected percent of GDP growth was accompanied by the unchanged forecasts of inflation for 2018, 2019 and 2020. The expected level of inflation for the next three years is 1.7%. Draghi said that it will be consistent. In his opinion, lower growth doesn't always lead to lower inflation.
However, the situation for currency came out better than it was expected.
Analyzing the outcome of the ECB meeting, the fact that Draghi didn’t speak about the emerging market risks brought some joy to EUR/USD buyers.
In addition, CPI of the US revealed today showed lower figures than it was expected (0.2% vs 0.3%). This pushed the USD down and made EUR/USD even more favorable for bulls. As we can see on the daily chart, the pair has been rising reaching the 100-day moving average at 1.1680. This is the resistance level for EUR/USD. If the pair closes above this level, the next resistance will be at 1.1740. The opposite situation will result in uncertainty of the next euro move.
The main bank of Russian will likely turn hawkish today. Time to sell USD/RUB?
Once in a month, the euro has a very special day of increased volatility at the start of the European trading session.
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
Great Britain will publish the Inflation Rate on October 20, at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3).
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