The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
The market awaits NFP
The United States will release the level of Non-farm payrolls (NFP) or Non-farm employment change on March 8 at 15:30 MT time. The NFP is known as a change in the number of employed people. It is considered as one of the indicators of consumer spending, which represent the economic activity of the country. This indicator is known for its high correlation with the USD, which results in very high volatility of the American currency. The last time, on February 1, NFP increased by 304K jobs, beating the analysts’ expectations. However, the weaker release of the average hourly earnings and higher-than-expected unemployment rate resulted in mixed trading of the greenback. Let’s see how the NFP will affect the USD this time.
• If the NFP is greater than expected, the USD will go up.
• If the NFP is weaker than expected, the USD will go down.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.