Market Crash Incoming?
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
The US Fed: salvation cometh
Economy bailout
Until recently, observers were complaining that the US Fed’s financial aid was not enough to keep the American economy going at acceptable pace. Well, it seems their prayers were heard: the Fed is opening its unlimited power to the market now. Its’ aid will be literally unlimited: Jerome Powell’s team promised to buy as many government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities as its required to ensure the virus hit doesn’t inflict too much damage. “Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate”, the Fed stated on Monday.
Essentially, that means, while the congress keeps discussing a $2trln stimulus, the Fed steps in to finance businesses and individuals directly, extending their support much beyond critical parts of the economy. That’s about time: observers predict the inevitable recession to the US economy and job losses in the rage of 1mln due to the coronavirus.
Forex
The US dollar responded immediately, as it was supposed to just like in any other case of such a large currency influx: it eased its grip on the market. Even the weak currencies such as MXN, TRY and RUB got an opportunity to relax a bit after an unstoppable onslaught of the USD. Gold surged as well, taking back its privileges as a safe-haven commodity.
Stocks
S&P dropped to 2175 – its lowest market since 2016. But the Fed’s actions made it get back up to 2320. Observers comment that although there still is certain bearish potential, there are reasons to expect recovery over the pass. For this reason, it is a good moment to watch for the pick-up signs for a possible buy in the nearest future.
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