The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US has joined the rest of the world in recession
The US economy has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. The country has now recorded more than 123,000 coronavirus cases, the most of any country in the world. President Donald Trump, who had talked about reopening the economy for Easter, on Sunday extended the national social distancing guidelines to April 30. The impact of such a rapid spread is enormous – 3.28 million people filed for unemployment insurance.
US Economic forecast from credible banks from all over the world
- Goldman Sachs is one of the largest investment banking enterprises in the world, and is a primary dealer in the United States Treasury security market. The firm expects the GDP will plummet by 24% in the second quarter of 2020.
- Economists from Deutsche Bank even compare the foreseen recession with the records of World War II and forecast the US economy to contract by 12.9%.
- Analysts from JPMorgan, one of the largest banking institutions in the United States, have more positive expectations than others. They believe that US GDP will decline by 2% in the first quarter and by only 3% in the second.
- Economists from Bank of America are confident that the US economy has already fallen into recession. They predict US GDP to fall by 12% in the second quarter.
- Morgan Stanley is an American multinational investment bank. Its analysts see the present US recession as more severe than it was in 2001 but less than in 2008.
- Economists of UBS, a Swiss multinational investment bank, expect US growth to drop by almost 10% in the second quarter of 2020.
What does it mean for traders?
There are no improvements in controlling coronavirus yet in the USA, that means macro uncertainty will prevail. Over the past two weeks the dollar has posted its biggest weekly rise since the 2008 financial crisis and then its biggest weekly drop since 2009. Yet as signs of funding stress have eased, but not abated, the dollar remains at elevated levels.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.