Last week, there were sharp swings in USDJPY, a decline in oil prices, and a surge in Tesla stock. What's next?
The US jobless claims!
The US unemployment claims are announced on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Since the second week of October, the number of initial jobless claims has never exceeded 800K in the US. The average values have been revolving around the channel of 750-780K throughout the latest weeks. On a large scale, there is a clear recovery path that the US labor market has been gradually following since the record peak of unemployed people in April. However, this is not what may move the USD in the short term: the market expectation is. Therefore, what you have to look for is whether the market will be “amused or not amused” with the actual number of initial jobless claims as compared to the expectation. If it is better than the forecast, the USD will get stronger. If not, the dollar may soften.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will be boosted.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Have a look at the key financial instruments on Monday, February 28. Geopolitics is currently on all news frontlines. Western nations escalated sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change (NFP), and the unemployment rate on July 8, at 15:30 MT time.
The Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve, will reveal a detailed record of the central bank’s last meeting on July 6 at 21:00 MT.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its cash rate and make a statement about future rate policy on Tuesday, July 5, at 07:30 MT.