During the daily press briefing of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, it was announced that Mexico will receive 1.4 million doses of the vaccine by the end of January. Is that optimistic enough for the peso?
The US jobless claims!
The US unemployment claims are announced on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Since the second week of October, the number of initial jobless claims has never exceeded 800K in the US. The average values have been revolving around the channel of 750-780K throughout the latest weeks. On a large scale, there is a clear recovery path that the US labor market has been gradually following since the record peak of unemployed people in April. However, this is not what may move the USD in the short term: the market expectation is. Therefore, what you have to look for is whether the market will be “amused or not amused” with the actual number of initial jobless claims as compared to the expectation. If it is better than the forecast, the USD will get stronger. If not, the dollar may soften.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will be boosted.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.